OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE
Working Paper No. 166
(Formerly Technical Paper No. 166)
THE HIPC INITIATIVE:
TRUE AND FALSE PROMISES
by
Daniel Cohen
Research programme on:
New Approaches to Poverty Reduction in Development
October 2000
CD/DOC(2000)10
pg_0002
4
TABLE OF CONTENTS
I. PREFACE ......................................................................................................... 5
II. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................... 7
III. THRESHOLDS OF SOLVENCY ....................................................................... 9
IV. EQUILIBRIUM MARKET PRICES .................................................................... 13
V. PRICING THE HIPC DEBT ............................................................................... 16
VI. ESTIMATING THE IMPACT OF THE HIPC INITIATIVE.................................... 21
VII. IMPACT ON GROWTH ..................................................................................... 24
VIII. POLICY IMPLICATIONS ................................................................................... 26
IX. CONCLUSION .................................................................................................. 28
X. APPENDIX ........................................................................................................ 29
XI. BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................................................................................... 35
pg_0003
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PREFACE
The HIPC Debt Initiative, the first comprehensive approach to reducing the external
debt of the worlds most Highly Indebted Poor Countries, was agreed by governments
around the world in 1996 and supported by the G7 Cologne Summit in 1999.
In this paper, Daniel Cohen explains why the real debt relief provided by the HIPC
Debt Initiative may be much lower than anticipated. The paper allows an assessment of
the true amount of resources released by donor countries and of the reduced debt burden
of debtor countries by employing a market perspective, rather than the common face
value or net present value calculations, on outstanding HIPC debt. The market perspective
tries to establish a realistic account of the probability that the debt in question would not
have been serviced in the absence of the HIPC debt initiative. As the eligible countries are
characterised by very high debt burdens (however measured), the implicit market value of
their liabilities is far below face value and net present value.
The authors findings warn against scaling down aid flows on the grounds of debt
relief granted under the HIPC initiative. If clearing donors books were to be combined with
scaling down new aid flows, the HIPC initiative would become detrimental to the eligible
debtor countries. This would be very bad news for the poor of the world.
Donors should, instead, split the accounting of the HIPC debt initiative into two
elements: a loss commensurate to the implied discount on the face value of claims, new
flows for the remainder. In addition, the paper provides suggestions for arranging debt
buy-back schemes at pre-fixed prices mutually agreed by debtors and donors.
Daniel Cohen is a Senior Consultant at the Development Centre and a Professor at
the cole Normale Suprieure, Paris. The research which led to this highly relevant paper
for all countries concerned with severe indebtedness, was carried out in the context of the
Centres research on Capital Flows, Financial Crises and Development.
Jorge Braga de Macedo
President,
OECD Development Centre
October 2000
pg_0004
6
Rsum
Selon ce Document technique, lvaluation de l'initiative PPTE (Pays Pauvres Trs Endetts) est
fausse par le fait que contrairement l'accord Brady elle ne prend pas en compte la
valeur de march de la remise de dette. La valeur de march exacte est celle qui intgre le
risque de non-paiement : arrirs, rchelonnements et refinancements contraints de
diffrentes natures.
A partir d'une analyse conomtrique des dbiteurs revenu intermdiaire des annes 80, le
document affirme que l'initiative est peu prs dix fois moins gnreuse que ce que pourrait
laisser penser sa valeur faciale comptable.
Abstract
The paper develops the view that the perspective on the HIPC initiative is distorted by the fact
that -contrary to the Brady deal itself- it lacks all perspective on the market value of the debt
which is written down. The appropriate market value is one that takes account of the risk of
non-payment: arrears, rescheduling and constrained refinancing of various sorts. Building
upon econometric evidence that relies on middle income debtors in the eighties, the paper argues
that the initiative is about ten times less generous than face value accounting would suggest.
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@_ M_}i|t
2H
pg_0027
j ,#Wj
+t! Lu @ _iM| Uhtt`i @i UL.t|hU|i_ @ @h@M*i +,5 U t 3ihL
u |i UL.|h) .iih hitUi_*i_ @._ u |i UL.|h) __ hitUi_*i EuLh
i@U Lu |i |L tMTihL_t b.ft @._ bHft 6hL4 tU @ @h@M*ic i U@.
it|4@|i @ ThLM| 4L_i* . U |i ThLM@M*|) Lu @ hitUi_*.} E+,5
t hi}hitti_ TL. |i Mi}...} Lu TihL_ #iM||LB# +@|L E#,Ac |i
*^_|) Lu |i ,UL.L4) Ewwv |i w@|. 4ihU@. _44) @._ |i 5@Ut
`@h.ih @h@M*i , EU |@!it @ @*i Lu L.i u |i UL.|h) *Mih@*ti_
|t |h@_i MiuLhi b.f W.|ihit|.}*) |i uhU@. #44) t .L| t}..U@.|
Ai hit*|t @hi @t uL**LtG
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Ai _iM| @h@M*ic @t i TiU|i_c t }*) t}..U@.|  Ai w@|. 4ihU@.
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4i.|i_ . |i _iM| *|ih@|hi W.|ihit|.}*)c |i 5@Ut`@h.ih @h@M*i t @*tL
}*) t}..U@.|G |Lti UL.|hit U @i *Mih@*ti_ |h@_i @hi @*tL *itt
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U@..i*t uLh U |t ULhhi*@|L. Lh!tc @._ |L tL4i i |i.|c | |@!it t
M@U! |L |i @4M}Lt t|@|t Lu |t @h@M*i W| U@. i|ih Mi |@!i. @t @.
._U@|Lh Lu R}LL_ 4@.@}i4i.| . }i.ih@*c Lh @t @. 4T*U| 4i@thi Lu |i
t}.@**.} igiU|t Lu |h@_i *Mih@*t@|L. TL. |i Uhi_| h@|.} Lu @ UL.|h)
wi| t .it|}@|i ihi L|ih tTiU.U@|L.t |@| 4}| Mi hi*i@.| uLh
Thi_U|.} |i _iM| Uhtt .i U@. |.! Lu @| *i@t| |L L|ih ._U@|LhtG
#iM|%, TLh| @._ #iM|%A@ +@|L Ai .ht| ._U@|Lh t 4Lt| Lu|i. ti_
uLh @.@*)t.} |i tL*i.U) Lu @ UL.|h)c |L |i i |i.| |@| | |@!it @t @
_i.L4.@|Lh |i R@h_ Uhhi.U) i@h..}t Lu @ UL.|h)( | t |i !i) ._U@|Lh
Mi._ |i OWt Ai tiUL._ ._U@|Lh t *itt Lu|i. ti_c @._ hi*@|it |L |i
u@U| |@| 4Lt| w# _iM| t }Lih.4i.| _iM| U @t |L Mi tihUi_ L| Lu
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2b
pg_0028
LTi..itt @h@M*i |i. i .._ |@| |i _iM||Li TLh| h@|L _L4.@|it |i
_iM||LB# h@|L `i @hi |i. *i_ |L @ t.}*i UL4T@htL.G U Lu _iM||L
|@ Lh _iM||Li TLh| t @ Mi||ih .UL._|L.@* Thi_U|Lh Lu _iM| Uhtt Ai
hit*| |h.t L| |L u@Lh _iM||L|@  `i. ML| @h@M*it @hi T| |L}i|ih
i ._ii_ LM|@.G
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AL t44@hti |i hit*|t LM|@.i_ . |t tiU|L.c i |ihiuLhi tii |@|
|i _iM||LB# h@|L t |i Mit| UL._|L.@* Thi_U|L. Lu @ _iM| Uhttc i.
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@h@M*i Lu 5@Ut @._ `@h.ih @._ Lu |i w@|. 4ihU@. #44) `i. |i
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f
pg_0029
A@M*i .G 5iUL._@h) @h!i| hUi
G2[ Qr fulvlv Fulvlv Vhyhuh fulvlv
533( 433( 69(
5:1;(
583( ;9( 64(
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633( ::( 5;(
54(
htt ' +itUi_*.} 5iihi Uhtt ' +itUi_*.} @._ hhi@ht #%j ' #iM| |L , TLh| +@|L
A@M*i HG hLM@M*|) Lu @ #iM| htt
G2[ Suredelolw| +shufhqwdjh,
533(
93(
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483(
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pg_0030
A@M*i fG #iM| 5|@|t|Ut
HGW SY SY2[ PY
Dqjrod
4515 4418 5169 718
Ehqlq
419 413 418< 318;
Erolyld
914 71< 6169 413
Exunlqd Idvr
417 31; 51:7 3157
Exuxqgl
414 319 ;149 31384
Fdphurxq
<1; ;15 6189 418<
Fhqwudo Diulfdq Uhs1 31<5 318: 618; 31443
Fkdg
413< 3196 5144 315:9
Frqjr/ Ghp1 Uhs1 451< 4515 :1:7 413<
Frqjr/ Uhs1ri
814 71: 51;9 4158
Frwh g*Lyrluh
471; 451: 5179 71:
Htxdwruldo Jxlqhd 31639 31583 31:5 31583
Hwklrsld
4316 ;1: ;1<; 3199;
Jkdqd
81< 713 41:5 514:
Jxlqhd
617 518 6139 31897
Jxlqhd0Elvvdx
31<97 319<8 4:166 0
Jx|dqd
419 414 4184 319:3
Krqgxudv
813 615 517: 41<;
Nhq|d
:13 814 41:7 51:7
Odrv SGU
517 414 5179 31738
Olehuld
514 41<< 0
0
Pdgdjdvfdu
717 616 61<9 318:8
Pdodzl
517 417 5159 318:4
Pdol
615 515 615 317:7
2
pg_0031
#iM| 5|@|t|Ut EL.|.i_
HGW SY SY2[ PY
Pdxulwdqld 519 417 614; 31637
Pr}dpeltxh ;15 51: 816< 31679
P|dqpdu
81: 71< 613< 413<
Qlfdudjxd 81<: 815 9134 318<:
Qljhu
41: 414 617 31556
Uzdqgd
415 319;5 8187 313;8
Vdr Wrp
h 31579 31477 4519; 3133:
Vrpdold
519 516
0 0
Vxgdq
491; 481< 5717; 3177;
Wdq}dqld
:19 81: 71;7 31;46
Wrjr
4178 413 4176 31964
Xjdqgd
61< 517 6144 31865
Ylhw Qdp
5517 5319 41;4 431:
\hphq
714 614 31<4 614
]dpeld
91; 818 716; 31;99
,#A ' AL|@* i |ih.@* _iM| EM*mc V ' Thiti.| @*i U@*U*@|L. EM*mc V%j 'Thiti.| @*i Lih i TLh|tc V ' @h!i| @*i EM*m
** OWW
Idfh Ydoxh Suhvhqw Ydoxh Pdunhw Ydoxh Dyhudjh Sulfh-
54316
49817
781<
315;
8 4@h!i| @*i%Thiti.| @*i 5LhUiG `Lh*_ @.! @._ @|Lh<t U@*U*@|L.t
A@M*i G W4T@U| Lu |i OW W.|@|i E. TihUi.|@}i Lu i TLh|t
E(*f
f
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483 shu fhqw
3
3
4:8 shu fhqw 817
3
533 shu fhqw ;19
3
583 shu fhqw 4418
51<
633 shu fhqw 4416
51:
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f
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{T*f G
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pg_0032
A@M*i 2G BhL| @._ 6.@.U@* htt
Yduldeohv
w vwdwlvwlf
F
03154
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GXP;3 0313<143
32
0614
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32
0318<
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32
031<
OUJGS 03134< 091<
VZ
31345
615
OHQU5 31;143
32
6134
SUHV
031346 06176
OLQY
31346
71:8
WRW
313:
516:
RSE
03139
081;
HWKQ
031354 0713
Dgm1U
2
3197
Ghshqghqw yduldeoh= shu fdslwd jurzwk udwh +4<:3v dqg 4<;3v,
Oujgs= Orj ri lqlwldo lqfrph shu fdslwd ri wkh frxqwu|> Ohqu5= orj ri
vhfrqgdu| vfkr ro hquroophqw ri fkloguhq> Olqy= orj ri lqyhvwphqw> Hwkq=
Hdvwhuo|0Ohylqh lqgh{ ri hwkqlf glyhuvlw|> Wrw= whup ri wudgh> Rse= eodfn
pdunhw suhplxp zhljkwhg e| rshqqhvv> Suhv= ulvn ri d ghew fulvlv> Odwlqfd=
Odwlq Dphulfdq dqg wkh Fduleehdq1
e
pg_0033
jW WwWB+Ov
*Lc a @._ k +L}Lg Ebbfc R*i@..} T Ah_ `Lh*_ #iM| |L|
Bi||.} A@!i. |L |i *i@.ihtc aLh.@* Lu ,UL.L4U ihtTiU|i
*@itti.tc 5c # !t @._ 5 @. `.Mih}i. Ebbec RW.|ihit| +@|itc BhL|
@._ , |ih.@* #iM|G Ai @UhLiUL.L4U W4T@U| Lu i UL<t h@_)
#i@* ,+ # bfe
Li.c # Ebbfc R#iM| +i*iuG W4T*U@|L.t Lu 5iUL._@h) @h!i| #t
UL.|t @._ #iM| ih@.}tc `Lh*_ @.! ,UL.L4U +iic L* ec
e D
Li.c # Ebbc h@|i wi._.} |L 5Lihi}. 5|@|itG  |iLhi|U@* @
|LTt)c @4Mh_}iG WA hitt
Li.c # Ebb2 G R Ai #iM| htt G  Lt|4Lh|i4 c ,+ @UhLi
UL.L4Ut ..@*c i_|i_ M)  *@.U@h_ @._ 5 6tUih
Li.c # EbbHc RBhL| @._ , |ih.@* #iM| G  i ihtTiU|i L. |i
uhU@. @._ w@|. 4ihU@. Ah@}i_itc ,+,c Lh!.} T@Tih
L**ihc  @._ # #L**@h Ebbbc R_ **LU@|L. @._ Lih|) +i_U|L.c
`Lh*_ @.!c 44iL
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,|.U #tL.tc "@h|ih*) aLh.@* Lu ,UL.L4Ut
kh}4@.c G R 6.@.U.} ihtt 6Lh}.} @ #iM| ih@.} c aLh.@* Lu
#ii*LT4i.| ,UL.L4Utc 2b G 2D 2SH
hUi** a @._ # h*@.t! EbHHc R#ii*LT.} L.|hit< wL@.tG  i
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.} #iM| httc hLL!.}t @Tiht L. ,UL.L4U U||)c 2c DDDSfS
a 5@Ut i|  `@h.ih EbbSc R,UL.L4U +iuLh4 @._ |i hLUitt Lu B*LM@*
W.|i}h@|L. hLL!.}t T@Tiht L. ,UL.L4U U||)c c H
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