OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE

Working Paper No. 166

(Formerly Technical Paper No. 166)

THE HIPC INITIATIVE:

TRUE AND FALSE PROMISES

by

Daniel Cohen

Research programme on:

New Approaches to Poverty Reduction in Development

October 2000

CD/DOC(2000)10

4

TABLE OF CONTENTS

I. PREFACE ......................................................................................................... 5

II. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................... 7

III. THRESHOLDS OF SOLVENCY ....................................................................... 9

IV. EQUILIBRIUM MARKET PRICES .................................................................... 13

V. PRICING THE HIPC DEBT ............................................................................... 16

VI. ESTIMATING THE IMPACT OF THE HIPC INITIATIVE.................................... 21

VII. IMPACT ON GROWTH ..................................................................................... 24

VIII. POLICY IMPLICATIONS ................................................................................... 26

IX. CONCLUSION .................................................................................................. 28

X. APPENDIX ........................................................................................................ 29

XI. BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................................................................................... 35

5

PREFACE

The HIPC Debt Initiative, the first comprehensive approach to reducing the external

debt of the world’s most Highly Indebted Poor Countries, was agreed by governments

around the world in 1996 and supported by the G7 Cologne Summit in 1999.

In this paper, Daniel Cohen explains why the real debt relief provided by the HIPC

Debt Initiative may be much lower than anticipated. The paper allows an assessment of

the true amount of resources released by donor countries and of the reduced debt burden

of debtor countries by employing a market perspective, rather than the common face

value or net present value calculations, on outstanding HIPC debt. The market perspective

tries to establish a realistic account of the probability that the debt in question would not

have been serviced in the absence of the HIPC debt initiative. As the eligible countries are

characterised by very high debt burdens (however measured), the implicit market value of

their liabilities is far below face value and net present value.

The author’s findings warn against scaling down aid flows on the grounds of debt

relief granted under the HIPC initiative. If clearing donors’ books were to be combined with

scaling down new aid flows, the HIPC initiative would become detrimental to the eligible

debtor countries. This would be very bad news for the poor of the world.

Donors should, instead, split the accounting of the HIPC debt initiative into two

elements: a loss commensurate to the implied discount on the face value of claims, new

flows for the remainder. In addition, the paper provides suggestions for arranging debt

buy-back schemes at pre-fixed prices mutually agreed by debtors and donors.

Daniel Cohen is a Senior Consultant at the Development Centre and a Professor at

the École Normale Supérieure, Paris. The research which led to this highly relevant paper

for all countries concerned with severe indebtedness, was carried out in the context of the

Centre’s research on Capital Flows, Financial Crises and Development.

Jorge Braga de Macedo

President,

OECD Development Centre

October 2000

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Résumé

Selon ce Document technique, l’évaluation de l'initiative PPTE (Pays Pauvres Très Endettés) est

faussée par le fait que — contrairement à l'accord Brady — elle ne prend pas en compte la

“valeur de marché” de la remise de dette. La “valeur de marché” exacte est celle qui intègre le

risque de non-paiement : arriérés, rééchelonnements et refinancements “contraints” de

différentes natures.

A partir d'une analyse économétrique des débiteurs à revenu intermédiaire des années 80, le

document affirme que l'initiative est à peu près dix fois moins généreuse que ce que pourrait

laisser penser sa valeur faciale comptable.

Abstract

The paper develops the view that the perspective on the HIPC initiative is distorted by the fact

that -contrary to the Brady deal itself- it lacks all perspective on the “market value” of the debt

which is written down. The appropriate “market value” is one that takes account of the risk of

non-payment: arrears, rescheduling and “constrained” refinancing of various sorts. Building

upon econometric evidence that relies on middle income debtors in the eighties, the paper argues

that the initiative is about ten times less generous than face value accounting would suggest.

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